Nvidia Stock Forecast: NVDA Closes Below Major Support, Here’s What Happens Next

Nvidia stock (NASDAQ: NVDA) just closed the week below a major technical support level. Although the break was relatively small, it matters statistically. Based on historical price behavior, closing below this level slightly increases the probability of an immediate sell-off or a failed bounce followed by another move lower.

My trading plan remains unchanged. I previously shorted Nvidia near the top, with the intention of looking for a reversal and going long again in the low $100s. I still expect that scenario to play out.

However, the timeline has accelerated considerably.

Nvidia Stock Closes Below Major Weekly Support

The most important development is that Nvidia has now closed below the yellow support level on my chart.

The break is relatively small, but that does not mean it should be ignored.

When you study a large amount of historical price data, the difference between closing above and below an important technical level becomes statistically relevant.

This latest weekly close slightly shifts the odds in favor of further downside.

There are two scenarios I am watching:

• Immediate selling: Nvidia continues lower without a meaningful recovery.
• Failed bounce: The stock attempts to recover, but buyers fail to reclaim the broken support level, resulting in another move lower.

Both scenarios would support my existing bearish outlook.

My Nvidia Trading Strategy: Short Near the Top, Long Again in the Low $100s

My plan remains completely unchanged.

I opened my short position near the top because I expected a significant correction in Nvidia stock.

My original strategy was to cover the short around the low $100s and then look for an opportunity to go long again.

I initially expected the entire process, including both trades, to take approximately six months.

However, developments surrounding Jensen Huang, spying allegations and related headlines accelerated the price action considerably.

That is part of trading. The market does not always follow the timeline we expect.

The important thing is that the underlying trading plan has not changed.

How Low Could Nvidia Stock Go?

My first area of interest remains the low $100s.

That is where I initially expected Nvidia to find a potential bottom and where I would start looking for a long entry.

However, we should not assume that the first potential support area will necessarily hold.

If selling accelerates into a major sell climax, we could even see Nvidia trade into the high double digits.

A final wave of negative headlines near the end of the decline could potentially accelerate that process.

I don’t know exactly where the bottom will form. We will have to let the price action develop and look for confirmation when the time comes.

Can Nvidia Earnings on Tuesday Trigger a Reversal?

One important event is approaching: Nvidia earnings on Tuesday.

Could earnings put my short position under pressure? Absolutely.

I have no reliable way of knowing whether the reaction will be bullish or bearish.

Management will likely try to present the strongest possible outlook, but the real question is how the market will interpret the results.

Even excellent earnings can trigger selling if investors were expecting something even better.

Conversely, strong guidance could trigger another rally and temporarily put bearish positions under pressure.

If Nvidia moves against my position following earnings, I will have to manage that situation accordingly.

Even a move all the way toward $190 would not be pleasant, but I believe I will be able to manage the position and navigate the situation.

My expectation remains that Nvidia will eventually move lower again.

What Happens Next for NVDA Stock?

The weekly close below major support is another development supporting my bearish outlook.

It slightly increases the probability of immediate selling or a failed bounce.

My first downside area remains the low $100s, although a deeper move into double digits cannot be ruled out if selling accelerates.

I am also keeping a close eye on Tuesday’s earnings report because it could introduce significant short-term volatility.

For now, my trading plan remains unchanged:

• Maintain the bearish outlook.
• Watch for immediate selling or a failed bounce.
• Look for a potential bottom in the low $100s.
• Consider a long position once the technical structure confirms a reversal.

I am not trying to predict the exact bottom. I want to see how the market develops and position accordingly.

Final Thoughts: Is Nvidia Stock Heading Lower?

Nvidia closing below major weekly support is an important development, even if the break itself was relatively small.

The statistical implications of closing below rather than above an important level matter, particularly when combined with an already bearish technical structure.

My expectation remains that Nvidia will move toward the low $100s, potentially even lower if we experience a major selling climax.

Earnings on Tuesday could complicate the process, but they do not change my broader trading thesis.

What do you think? Will Nvidia continue lower after breaking weekly support, or will earnings trigger another major bounce?

Let me know your thoughts in the comments. I’ll reply with my take.

This article reflects my personal technical analysis and trading outlook. It is not financial advice. Trading stocks and short positions involves substantial risk.

Educational content only. Trading involves substantial risk. The setup grade and outcome described here are specific to my plan, sizing, and risk tolerance. Do your own work.