NVIDIA Stock Forecast: Why I Expect More Downside for NVDA Despite Today’s Bounce

NVIDIA stock (NASDAQ: NVDA) is bouncing from strong technical support, with positive CoreWeave (CRWV) headlines adding further momentum. But is it time to get bullish again? I don’t think so. My analysis of the monthly chart suggests the current sell-off has further to go, and I expect the first bullish attempt to fail.

Is the NVIDIA Stock Bounce a Buying Opportunity?

NVIDIA is showing strength today, bouncing from a significant support area. Positive headlines surrounding CoreWeave are also helping sentiment across the AI sector.

At first glance, this might look like the beginning of a bullish reversal.

However, I believe traders should be careful about getting bullish too early. The monthly chart is showing a strong downside move, and historical market structure suggests this sell-off is unlikely to be over already.

What the Monthly Chart Tells Us About NVIDIA Stock

The most important reason behind my bearish outlook is the structure of the current move on the monthly chart.

We have now started a very strong move lower. But looking at previous major corrections, the first push down was rarely the entire move.

Let’s look at some historical examples.

The 2018 Sell-Off

Back in 2018, the market experienced a powerful downside move that lasted approximately three months.

But it wasn’t one continuous decline. It consisted of multiple pushes lower, interrupted by temporary bounces.

The structure was clear:

• First push down.
• Bounce.
• Second push down.
• Another bounce.
• Further downside, with multiple pushes visible in the final part of the move.

The 2022 Bear Market

We saw a similar pattern in 2022.

The market experienced several downside legs, with pauses and temporary recoveries in between.

Again, the initial move lower was not the end of the correction.

The 2025 Sell-Off

We can also identify a similar structure in 2025, although that decline was less powerful.

There were already three downside pushes visible in the structure.

The important distinction is that the current sell-off is significantly stronger than the move we saw in 2025.

Why I Don’t Believe the Current Bounce Is the Bottom

The current decline is developing a similar pattern.

We have already seen:

1. A strong push down.
2. A bounce.
3. Another push lower.
4. A smaller bounce.
5. Another downside push.

This is beginning to resemble the early stages of previous major corrections.

For the current move to already be over would be a relatively rare event.

I don’t build my trading decisions around rare events. I focus on high-probability setups.

My NVIDIA Stock Forecast: More Downside Ahead

My base case remains bearish.

I expect the first bullish attempt to fail, regardless of how high the current bounce takes NVIDIA.

Following that failure, I expect at least one or two additional downside legs before the market establishes a more convincing bottom.

Only then will I seriously start considering a reversal and a potential long position again.

That doesn’t mean NVIDIA cannot bounce significantly in the meantime. It means I don’t believe the current market structure supports treating this as a high-probability long-term bottom.

Final Thoughts: Should You Buy NVIDIA Stock Now?

NVIDIA bouncing from strong support and positive CoreWeave headlines is certainly worth watching.

But one strong bounce doesn’t automatically reverse a bearish monthly structure.

I’m not rushing to buy the dip. My focus remains on the broader technical picture, and I believe the downside move has further to go.

I would rather wait for the correction to develop fully and identify a high-probability long setup than enter too early and get caught in another leg lower.

Do you think NVIDIA has already bottomed, or is another major downside move coming? Let me know in the comments. I’ll personally reply!

Educational content only. Trading involves substantial risk. The setup grade and outcome described here are specific to my plan, sizing, and risk tolerance. Do your own work.