Our thesis was that the multi-month trading ranges in the $SPX, $AVGO, and several other names would eventually break to the downside. Historically, that would have been the most likely outcome. Combined with the deteriorating macro environment, I am confident the odds favored the bears.
Instead, we got the lower-probability outcome.
That said, our risk-to-reward on those short trades was several times greater than our risk. Even with only a 40% win rate, that approach remains profitable over the long run. I am sure the probability of success on those setups was well above 50%.
For now, I it’s the bulls’ turn and that’s why I shifted to longs once I saw an inflection point (explained in video)
Later this year, I still expect the bears to regain the edge, and they will be back much stronger than we have seen in a long long time.
As swing traders, all we really need are multiple consecutive trend bars on the weekly chart. Once they appear, we’ll print strongly again, long or short.
🔥 Key Updates
$ZETA
Want to read the rest? Join Patreon…
$CRWV
$ORCL
$QCOM
Want this kind of breakdown on every trade?
Inside Patreon, every position — wins and losses — gets the full plan-execute-manage-review treatment. Daily updates while trades are on. Direct chat with me.
Join on PatreonEducational content only. Trading involves substantial risk. The setup grade and outcome described here are specific to my plan, sizing, and risk tolerance. Do your own work.
Geef een reactie