S&P 500: Are the Odds Still Bullish?

The S&P 500 remains volatile after the recent pullback, but the bigger question is whether the bulls still have the advantage.

In my view, the answer is yes, although the market may need to test lower levels first.

A Lower Test Is Still Possible

The bulls already stepped back in, showing that buyers are still active. However, there is an important area just below current prices that could still act as a magnet.

On ES futures, I am watching the 7,640 zone.

Markets often return to test important price areas before resuming the dominant trend. I hope we do not need to test that level, but I believe the odds slightly favor another move lower first.

What Happens After a Test Lower?

If the market tests lower support and the bears fail to get strong follow-through, the short-term odds could quickly shift back in favor of the bulls.

That would fit with the bigger-picture structure, which remains bullish.

A pullback alone does not automatically mean the bull trend is over. In a strong market, pullbacks and periods of uncertainty are normal before the next move higher begins.

The key will be whether buyers continue to step in around support.

The Bigger Picture Remains Bullish

Despite the recent volatility, I still see the broader structure as bullish.

That does not mean the market will move straight up. Another leg lower is possible, and short-term price action can remain choppy.

But after a potential test lower, I believe the odds would once again favor the bulls.

What I’m Watching Next

My main focus is the reaction around lower support, especially the 7,640 area on ES futures.

If the market reaches that zone and buyers step in, it could provide the foundation for another move higher.

For now, the question is not whether the market can pull back further. It can.

The more important question is whether the bears can turn the current pullback into a sustained bearish move.

Until they prove that they can, I believe the bigger picture still favors the bulls.

Educational content only. Trading involves substantial risk. The setup grade and outcome described here are specific to my plan, sizing, and risk tolerance. Do your own work.