Is Nvidia Stock Heading Lower?
Nvidia stock ($NVDA) is trading below the $200 level, and I remain fully short with a double-sized position. While a temporary bounce is possible, I believe the rally will eventually fail and Nvidia could move significantly lower.
The key question is not whether NVDA can bounce, but whether that bounce will be strong enough to change the broader bearish trend.
Why I’m Not Ready to Go Long on Nvidia
Nvidia’s weekly chart is showing continued weakness. If the current weekly candle closes bearish, it would mark five consecutive bearish candle bodies.
Historically, five consecutive bearish candles often lead to a pause or short-term bounce. We could even see six or seven consecutive bearish candles, but the probability of a temporary recovery increases after an extended move lower.
However, a bounce would not automatically change my outlook.
I expect Nvidia to remain vulnerable to further downside, potentially extending into 2027.
Nvidia’s Monthly Chart and the Bigger Picture
After a prolonged uptrend, Nvidia is entering a phase where a trading range or deeper correction becomes increasingly plausible.
The key question is where the bottom of that range will form.
A move toward $150 is possible, and I would be surprised if the correction stopped there without testing lower levels. A deeper decline remains possible as well.
I’m open to different outcomes, but I’m not looking to reverse long too early.
Why the 2027 Macro Outlook Matters
My macro models point to a very bearish environment in the first half of 2027, with conditions such as:
- Lower economic growth
- Higher inflation
- Potentially more interest-rate hikes
- Increasing pressure on high-valuation technology stocks
This macro outlook aligns with the bearish structure visible on Nvidia’s monthly chart.
If these conditions develop, Nvidia and the broader Nasdaq could face significant selling pressure.
What Would Make Me Turn Bullish on NVDA?
I’m not ruling out a long position in the future.
If Nvidia experiences a deep selloff and momentum begins to fade, I’ll look for signs that sellers are losing strength.
A higher low or a clear reversal structure could provide the confirmation needed to consider going long again.
If that happens, Nvidia could eventually revisit its highs and potentially reach $500 over the coming years.
But right now, I see no reason to be bullish.
Conclusion: Nvidia Could Still Have Significant Downside
Nvidia stock remains below $200, and I believe the current bearish trend has further room to run.
A temporary bounce is possible, especially after an extended decline, but I expect that rally to fail unless the chart structure changes.
My current outlook remains bearish, with the possibility of a deeper correction beginning in late 2026 or early 2027.
I’ll consider reversing long when the charts show that sellers are losing control, not simply because Nvidia has already fallen significantly.
What’s your outlook for Nvidia? Do you agree with the bearish thesis, or do you think NVDA is ready to recover? Share your thoughts in the comments.
This article reflects my personal market outlook and is for informational purposes only, not financial advice.
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