Swing Trading Update: ETH, Sugar, Silver, ZETA and S&P 500 Outlook

ETH, sugar, silver and ZETA are all up strongly. PLTR is lifting off, while LLY is resuming its bear leg. Pretty good day.

S&P 500

We have now reached the middle of the channel, so the 70% statistic has played out.

Looking ahead, today’s bull trend was not particularly strong. Open a 5-minute chart and compare it with the bull trend we saw a few weeks ago.

I still think we are likely to see 8,000 before a major dip, for the same reasons as before. However, because today’s trend was so weak, I would not be surprised if we first drop below this week’s low.

As I mentioned before, there is also still an untouched magnet at 7,628 on the September ES futures contract.

🔥 Key Updates

$ZETA

As expected, the trading range ended up as a bull flag, with trend resumption today.

I am still expecting us to reach the $50 zone, but now that we no longer have the first-pause statistic on both the 3-day and weekly charts, the odds of a pullback have increased.

We could also simply keep trending until we reach our target. I see both scenarios as roughly 50/50. If we do get a pullback, we will probably only lose time.

$CRWV $QCOM $ORCL

Flat day, but $CRWV is weak. I don’t know why it is so weak, but I do know the odds are still backing us.

Silver

Unchanged:

The bull reversal is good, but we are still in a range. Breaking and holding above $70 is the next phase. We will probably get it, but a longer range may be needed first.

$FCX

Unchanged:

Now knocking on the $80 door. Doing exactly as expected. More up.

Sugar

STRONG, STRONG, STRONG.

War and weather are certainly helping us, but that was not luck. Those factors were part of the decision.

$ETH

We got a breakout, but it failed. Not surprising, as the trend is so stretched.

This is a long-term position, so we need to go through all these phases.

$PFE

Some selling today just makes a range. Longer term, it will probably just become a bull flag.

$RIG

Here is the higher low I was talking about yesterday.

$LLY Short

Good selling again today while the S&P 500 is bullish. That is great progress.

See the attached image for the current list of open positions.

📌 Final Notes

Just 5% per month on a $10K account compounds to approximately $100M in 15.7 years.

It’s not easy, but the mathematics show what is possible through consistent compounding.

Key Principles

• Trade small.
• Judge performance over 200+ trades, not a handful of trades.
• Stay in the game long enough to catch the true swing-trading environments.
• Keep risk per trade controlled.

⚠️ Disclaimer

This is structured, probability-based trade management, not financial advice.

Risk management and position sizing remain the foundation of long-term success.

When you hit your stop, your maximum loss should be 1% of your account. Calculate your position size for every trade accordingly.

A 1% risk per trade is more than enough to pursue the 5% average monthly goal discussed above while keeping individual losses under control.

Educational content only. Trading involves substantial risk. The setup grade and outcome described here are specific to my plan, sizing, and risk tolerance. Do your own work.